Although the 2027 governorship election in Oyo State is still months away, the state’s political terrain has already entered an intense period of realignment as political parties, governorship aspirants and influential stakeholders position themselves for what is expected to be one of the most fiercely contested elections in the state’s democratic history. With Governor Seyi Makinde completing his constitutionally permitted second and final term in office, attention has shifted to the battle for succession, while political discussions increasingly centre on prominent figures across the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the All Progressives Congress (APC), the Allied Peoples Movement (APM), the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the Labour Party (LP), the Accord Party, and other political platforms.

For the first time since 2019, Oyo State will hold a governorship election without an incumbent governor on the ballot. Unlike the 2019 and 2023 elections, where Governor Makinde was the central figure, the 2027 contest presents a completely different political equation. It has opened the political space for intense succession battles, strategic defections, possible mergers, coalition-building and fierce competition among political heavyweights seeking to inherit one of Nigeria’s most politically significant states.

Across Ibadan, Ogbomoso, Oke-Ogun, Oyo, Ibarapa and other parts of the state, consultations have intensified among former governors, former deputy governors, members of the National Assembly, party executives, traditional political blocs, grassroots mobilisers and business interests. Meetings in Ibadan, Abuja and other political centres have reportedly focused on candidate selection, zoning, reconciliation among aggrieved factions, possible defections and strategies for strengthening party structures ahead of the official campaign period.

Political conversations have increasingly revolved around Governor Seyi Makinde, Senator Sharafadeen Alli, HazeemGbolarumi, Bimbo Adekanmbi, Adebayo Adelabu, OriyomiHamzat, Bisi Ilaka, Gbemileke Alagbe, Adegboyega Adegoke, and several other influential political actors whose decisions could reshape the electoral map before the governorship election.

While some political developments have been officially confirmed, many reports concerning defections, mergers and strategic alliances remain subjects of political speculation and ongoing consultations. Nevertheless, one reality has become increasingly clear: Oyo State is entering one of the most fluid political transitions since Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999. The decisions political actors make before the party primaries—including candidate emergence, party unity, coalition-building and strategic defections—could ultimately determine who succeeds Governor Seyi Makinde at the AgodiGovernment House in 2027.

Oyo State has remained one of Nigeria’s most politically strategic states, with its voting pattern often reflecting broader developments in the South-West. Since 1999, power has changed hands among different political tendencies, making the state one of the country’s most competitive political battlegrounds. The 2019 governorship election marked a turning point when Seyi Makinde of the PDP defeated the APC administration despite the party’s federal dominance. His victory was largely attributed to a broad coalition of opposition forces, effective grassroots mobilisation and widespread dissatisfaction with the outgoing administration.

Consequently, in the 2023 governorship election, Makindesecured a convincing second-term victory, polling approximately 63 per cent of the votes cast to defeat the APC candidate, Teslim Folarin, while the Accord Party candidate, Adebayo Adelabu, finished third. The victory further strengthened the PDP’s dominance in Oyo State and reinforced Makinde’s position as one of the most influential political figures in the South-West. However, politics in Oyo has never remained static.

With Governor Makinde constitutionally barred from seeking another term in 2027, the state’s political landscape has once again become highly competitive. Virtually every major political party is grappling with internal succession battles, while influential politicians are reconsidering their political futures. Unlike previous election cycles, where incumbency significantly influenced political calculations, the forthcoming governorship election presents an open contest with no clear favourite. This has triggered intense negotiations, consultations and strategic manoeuvres across virtually all political parties.

The PDP is no longer the PDP that took control of the state government, it has experienced internal divisions arising from disagreements over succession, candidate selection and party leadership, and which has forced some into the APM has rapidly transformed into a significant political platform following the influx of high-profile politicians and supporters. The APC, on its part, has sought to rebuild after its 2023 defeat by reconciling aggrieved aspirants and consolidating support around its emerging leadership. Smaller political parties, including the Accord Party, the ADC and the Labour Party, have also experienced internal disagreements, parallel congresses and competing governorship aspirations, creating uncertainty regarding their eventual political direction.Taken together, these developments suggest that the political environment ahead of 2027 will be shaped not only by party manifestoes but also by negotiations, defections, mergers and coalition politics.

Very well, political defections have become one of the defining characteristics of Nigeria’s democratic experience, particularly in the Fourth Republic. Rather than being driven solely by ideology, party switching is often influenced by electoral calculations, leadership disputes, access to political structures, succession battles and the quest for stronger platforms ahead of elections. Oyo State has historically reflected this national trend, and the political developments leading to the 2027 governorship election appear no different.

Unlike previous election cycles, however, the current wave of defections has affected virtually every major political party in the state. The PDP has witnessed the departure of several influential figures, the APC has continued efforts to attract dissatisfied politicians from rival parties, while the APM has emerged as perhaps the biggest beneficiary of the ongoing political realignments. The Accord Party, ADC and Labour Party have also experienced internal divisions that could ultimately influence the outcome of the governorship election.

Perhaps the most consequential political development in OyoState has been the emergence of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) as a significant platform around Governor Seyi Makindeand many of his loyalists. Following months of political consultations, several politicians widely regarded as close associates of the governor moved or align from the PDP to the APM.

The emergence of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) as a major political force represents one of the most significant developments in Oyo politics. The party gained momentum after several party members from PDP aligned with Makinde—including several serving federal lawmakers—left the PDP to join the APM. The bloc has since positioned itself as a formidable platform by attracting defectors from the PDP, APC, Accord Party and ADC. With Hon. Abimbola (Bimbo) Adekanmbi as its governorship candidate and Makinde’sloyalists occupying key positions within the party, the APM has quickly transformed from a minor political platform into one of the leading contenders expected to influence the outcome of the 2027 Oyo governorship election. While its long-term electoral strength will ultimately depend on its ability to convert high-profile defections into votes across the state, its rapid rise has already reshaped the political permutations ahead of the election.

Taofeek Arapaja: The Biggest Opposition gain yet?

One of the most closely watched political developments has been the movement of former Deputy Governor Ambassador Taofeek Arapaja. Arapaja has remained one of the most influential politicians in Oyo State over the past two decades, serving as deputy governor, party leader and national officer of the PDP. His reported disagreements over the PDP governorship succession process generated intense political debate, particularly after parallel political interests emerged within the party.

His eventual association with the APC represents one of the most significant political developments ahead of the 2027 election. Unlike many other defectors, Arapaja brings not only personal political experience but also an extensive political network spanning several local government areas, especially within Ibadan. Should he successfully mobilise his supporters into the APC, the party could substantially improve its electoral prospects.

The ongoing political realignments have not been limited to the PDP, APC and APM. The Accord Party has continued to experience internal disagreements arising from competing leadership interests and with different governorship aspirants, as Olakunle Busari and Oriyomi Hamzat. Similarly, the ADC has struggled to present a united front following disputes over parallel primaries and rival governorship candidates.  Within the Labour Party, political uncertainty at the national level has also influenced developments in Oyo State, with some members reportedly exploring alternative political platforms. Although these parties may not individually possess the electoral strength of the PDP or APC, their eventual decisions regarding alliances or defections could influence voting patterns in closely contested local government areas.

Who Else Could Defect?

Despite the significant movements already witnessed, political analysts believe the realignment process is far from over. Several politicians across the major political parties are reportedly monitoring developments before making final decisions about their political future. Within the APC, observers have speculated that aggrieved aspirants dissatisfied with the outcome of party primaries could reconsider their positions if reconciliation efforts fail. Likewise, some members of the PDP who remain undecided may eventually align with whichever platform appears most capable of retaining Governor Makinde’spolitical structure. The Accord Party and ADC also remain vulnerable to further defections because of their internal leadership disputes. However, until official announcements are made, such possibilities remain speculative and should be viewed as part of the broader political calculations rather than confirmed developments.

Although formal merger discussions remain largely speculative, consultations among political actors suggest that several alliance permutations are being considered as parties seek to maximisetheir electoral prospects before the governorship election.

The most significant political development ahead of the 2027 governorship election in Oyo State has been the emergence of the PDP/APM political bloc, built around the political structure of Governor Seyi Makinde. Although the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) remains the ruling party in Oyo State, recent political developments have effectively created a working alliance between Makinde’s faction of the PDP and the Allied Peoples Movement (APM), making the two parties operate as a coordinated political force in preparation for the 2027 elections.  

The PDP has governed Oyo State since Makinde’s victory in 2019 and his re-election in 2023. During his administration, the government expanded infrastructure, education, healthcare, agribusiness and economic development programmes, achievements that strengthened the party’s popularity across many parts of the state. However, as Makinde approaches the end of his constitutionally permitted second term, succession politics has exposed deep divisions within the PDP.

Disagreements over leadership, succession planning and the governorship primary created competing factions within the party. While one faction remained within the traditional PDP structure, another aligned with Governor Makinde’s broader political movement, which eventually adopted the APM as its electoral platform. This realignment triggered the departure of several prominent PDP leaders and elected officials, significantly altering the state’s political landscape.  

The official PDP structure continues to recognise HazeemGbolarumi, a former Deputy Governor of Oyo State, as its governorship candidate. However, Makinde’s political camp threw its weight behind Hon. Abimbola (Bimbo) Adekanmbi, who emerged as the consensus governorship candidate of the APM. During the APM primary, the party leadership openly described the PDP-APM partnership as one expected to produce positive political outcomes for Oyo State, while Makindepersonally endorsed Adekanmbi as the candidate to continue his administration’s Omituntun agenda.  

The emergence of the APM transformed what was previously regarded as a relatively small political party into one of the most influential platforms in Oyo State. The party rapidly gained strength following the movement of many politicians loyal to Governor Makinde, including Shina Peller, Adedeji Olajide, Olufemi Ajadi, Onaolapo Adedoyin and several serving federal lawmakers. The bloc also attracted defectors from the APC, Accord Party and the ADC, giving the APM a broader political spread across the state.  

One of the greatest strengths of the PDP/APM bloc lies in its ability to combine the advantages of incumbency with a fresh political platform. While the PDP still controls the state government and possesses an extensive grassroots structure, the APM provides Makinde’s loyalists with an alternative platform largely free from the internal disputes affecting the PDP. This arrangement has enabled many political office holders and aspirants to remain within Makinde’s political family while contesting elections under the APM banner.  

Despite these advantages, the bloc faces notable challenges. The existence of rival PDP factions, unresolved legal and political disputes, and the need to maintain cohesion between two separate party structures could test its unity as the election draws nearer. Nevertheless, the PDP/APM alliance has emerged as one of the strongest political formations in Oyo State and is widely expected to remain a dominant force in determining the outcome of the 2027 governorship election. 

For APC, the APC remains the principal opposition party in OyoState. Although it lost the governorship election in both 2019 and 2023, the party continues to possess one of the strongest political structures in the state and enjoys the advantage of being the ruling party at the federal level.

Following its governorship primary, Senator SharafadeenAbiodun Alli emerged as the party’s candidate. Alli brings considerable political experience and enjoys substantial support within Ibadan and several other parts of the state.

Despite disagreements that followed the primary, the APC has focused on reconciliation, with party elders and national leaders encouraging aggrieved aspirants to work together in preparation for the general election.

The entry of Ambassador Taofeek Arapaja into the APC is widely viewed as a political boost. As a former deputy governor and influential political figure, Arapaja could strengthen the party’s grassroots network, particularly within Ibadan. Political analysts also believe the APC may continue to court dissatisfied politicians from other parties, especially if internal disputes elsewhere remain unresolved.

The party’s greatest advantage lies in its established nationwide structure, federal influence and relatively stable organisationalframework. However, its biggest challenge remains maintaining internal unity after the primary process and convincing voters that it offers a credible alternative to the outgoing administration.

For ADC, the ADC has experienced considerable internal turbulence in Oyo State. The emergence of rival governorship candidates and disagreements over parallel primaries have created uncertainty regarding the party’s direction. Among the names linked with the party are Gbemileke Alagbe, AdegboyegaAdegoke and Bisi Ilaka, reflecting the competing interests that have complicated its internal politics. Unless these differences are resolved, the ADC risks entering the governorship election with a divided structure. Nevertheless, the party could still play an important role. Rather than winning the governorship outright, the ADC may influence the election through strategic endorsements, alliances or defections involving key political actors.

The Accord Party has traditionally maintained a loyal following in parts of Oyo State and has, at different times, produced influential governorship candidates. Ahead of 2027, however, the party has also experienced internal disagreements arising from competing governorship ambitions.

Political discussions have linked Oriyomi Hamzat and OlakunleBusari with different tendencies within the party, although the eventual direction of the Accord Party remains uncertain. Some political observers believe Accord could eventually align with either the APC or the APM, depending on post-primary negotiations and broader political calculations. Others argue that the party may retain its independence until the election. At present, both possibilities remain speculative.

Although the Labour Party’s electoral structure in Oyo State remains relatively modest compared with the PDP and APC, its performance in the 2023 general election demonstrated that it cannot be completely ignored. The party reportedly produced Sola Kareem as its governorship candidate through its internal process. However, national developments affecting the Labour Party have inevitably influenced its state chapter. Some members have reportedly explored opportunities in other political parties, while others remain committed to rebuilding the party ahead of the election.

Now, several possible political alignments are currently being discussed within political circles. One possibility is continued cooperation between politicians associated with Governor Makinde and the APM, particularly if both sides conclude that maintaining a united political structure offers the best chance of retaining power after 2027.

Another scenario involves the APC attracting additional defectors from rival parties, particularly politicians dissatisfied with the outcome of party primaries. If reconciliation efforts succeed, the APC could emerge from the primary season stronger than anticipated. The ADC and Accord Party may also become important negotiating partners. Rather than mounting independent campaigns, sections of both parties could eventually support larger political platforms in exchange for strategic political concessions.

Similarly, the Labour Party may decide to coordinate with other opposition groups in constituencies where independent campaigns appear less competitive. At present, however, there is no officially announced merger involving the major political parties in Oyo State. Most discussions remain informal, and the final political alignments will likely become clearer after party primaries and the submission of candidates to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

Who holds the advantage? At this stage, no political party can be said to enjoy an overwhelming advantage. The PDP/APM still possesses the benefits of incumbency and an established political structure but faces the challenge of maintaining internal cohesion. The APC appears increasingly organised and continues to benefit from federal influence, yet its ultimate success will depend on sustaining unity after the primary process and attracting additional political support. Meanwhile, the ADC, Accord Party, and Labour Party may not individually possess the numerical strength to win the governorship, but their eventual political decisions could influence the outcome in a closely contested election.

Today, Nigeria’s Constitution recognises the right of every citizen to belong to a political party. However, elected public office holders who defect from one political party to another may face constitutional consequences under certain circumstances.

Section 68(1)(g) of the 1999 Constitution (as amended) provides that members of the National Assembly may lose their seats if they defect from the political party under which they were elected before the expiration of their tenure, except where there is a division within the political party or where a merger has occurred.

A similar provision exists for members of State Houses of Assembly under Section 109 of the Constitution.Governors and deputy governors occupy a different constitutional position. Although the Constitution does not automatically remove a governor for changing political parties, such decisions often carry significant political consequences, including possible legal disputes, public criticism and realignment of political structures. For Oyo State, where several serving lawmakers have already changed political parties, these constitutional provisions remain relevant, particularly if legal challenges arise regarding the validity of their defections.

Beyond constitutional provisions, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) remains one of the most influential institutions ahead of the 2027 election. INEC will supervise party primaries, monitor compliance with the Electoral Act, receive the names of nominated candidates and ensure that political parties comply with established guidelines. Any political party that fails to conduct valid primaries in accordance with its constitution and the Electoral Act risks losing its candidate through judicial intervention. This is particularly important considering that several political parties in Oyo State have experienced parallel congresses, multiple governorship aspirants and disputes over delegate lists.

Why Defections Have Become a Political Strategy? Political defections have become one of the defining characteristics of Nigeria’s Fourth Republic.

Unlike mature democracies where ideology largely determines party membership, Nigerian politicians frequently change political parties in response to changing political realities. Several factors explain this trend.

The first is electoral survival. Politicians naturally seek platforms where they believe they have the greatest chance of securing nomination and winning elections. Secondly, internal democracy remains a major challenge in many political parties. Allegations of imposition, manipulation of delegates and disagreements over primary elections often encourage dissatisfied aspirants to seek opportunities elsewhere.

Another important factor is political influence. Politicians frequently align themselves with individuals considered capable of influencing electoral outcomes, whether at the state or national level. The current political developments in Oyo State reflect many of these realities.

Now, based on current developments, three broad political scenarios appear most plausible. The first possibility is that politicians loyal to Governor Seyi Makinde eventually consolidate behind a common political platform before the election. Should this happen, the governor’s political machinery could remain largely intact despite the recent defections from the PDP.

Such unity would likely strengthen whichever governorship candidate ultimately enjoys Makinde’s endorsement.

Under this arrangement, multiple political parties would field strong governorship candidates without any significant merger taking place. The APC, PDP, APM, ADC, Accord Party and Labour Party could all participate actively, resulting in a highly competitive multi-cornered contest.Such fragmentation could significantly reduce the winning margin and make local government-level mobilisation more important than statewide popularity alone.

In this scenario, voter turnout, grassroots organisation and effective election-day logistics could become more decisive than campaign rhetoric.

A third possibility is that the APC successfully consolidates opposition forces.

If additional influential politicians continue joining the party while reconciliation efforts succeed, the APC could significantly strengthen its electoral prospects. The party would also benefit from its connection to the Federal Government, particularly if national political developments favour the ruling party before the election. However, this scenario depends heavily on maintaining unity among former governorship aspirants and accommodating new entrants without creating additional internal conflicts.

Several issues are expected to determine the eventual outcome of the governorship election. The first is party unity. Political parties capable of resolving internal disputes before the election will likely enjoy a significant advantage. Secondly, candidate popularity will remain critical. Personal acceptance, political experience and grassroots appeal often influence voting behaviour in Oyo State. Another important factor is zoning and regional balancing. Although Oyo State has no legally recognised zoning arrangement, geographical considerations frequently influence political discussions. Campaign financing, youth participation, security, voter turnout, economic conditions and public perception of the outgoing administration will also shape the electoral environment. Ultimately, the ability of political parties to translate endorsements into actual votes on election day will determine success.

Despite growing political activities, every major political party faces identifiable risks.

For the PDP/APM, the greatest challenge remains rebuilding internal unity after months of disagreements and high-profile defections. The APC’s principal task is maintaining internal cohesion following its primary election while successfully integrating new members. The ADC, Labour Party and Accord Party must resolve internal leadership questions if they hope to remain electorally relevant. Failure to address these challenges could significantly weaken their respective campaigns.

Finally, the political journey towards the 2027 governorship election in Oyo State has already begun in earnest. Although several months remain before voters cast their ballots, the political decisions currently being taken may ultimately prove more significant than the campaigns themselves.

The emergence of new political alignments, the movement of influential politicians across party lines, ongoing reconciliation efforts and speculation about possible alliances have transformed the state’s political environment into one of the most dynamic in Nigeria. At present, no political party can confidently claim victory.

The PDP/APM continues to rely on the advantages of incumbency but faces internal divisions. The APC appears determined to capitalise on the changing political landscape by presenting itself as a united alternative, while smaller parties such as the ADC, Accord Party, Labour Party may ultimately influence the election through strategic partnerships rather than outright victory. Nevertheless, many of the reported alliances and possible defections remain matters of political speculation until officially confirmed by the individuals or parties involved. As such, the political landscape remains fluid and subject to rapid change.

If history is any guide, Oyo State’s politics will continue to evolve before the commencement of official campaigns. More negotiations, reconciliations, defections and strategic alliances are likely in the coming months as political actors seek to strengthen their positions. One thing, however, is certain: the contest to succeed Governor Seyi Makinde promises to be one of the most competitive, unpredictable and politically significant governorship elections in the history of Oyo State. The outcome will not only determine who occupies the Agodi Government House after 2027 but may also reshape the balance of political power in the South-West and influence Nigeria’s broader political landscape in the years ahead.

Although the 2027 governorship election in Oyo State is still months away, the state’s political terrain has already entered an intense period of realignment as political parties, governorship aspirants and influential stakeholders position themselves for what is expected to be one of the most fiercely contested elections in the state’s democratic history. With Governor Seyi Makinde completing his constitutionally permitted second and final term in office, attention has shifted to the battle for succession, while political discussions increasingly centre on prominent figures across the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the All Progressives Congress (APC), the Allied Peoples Movement (APM), the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the Labour Party (LP), the Accord Party, and other political platforms.

For the first time since 2019, Oyo State will hold a governorship election without an incumbent governor on the ballot. Unlike the 2019 and 2023 elections, where Governor Makinde was the central figure, the 2027 contest presents a completely different political equation. It has opened the political space for intense succession battles, strategic defections, possible mergers, coalition-building and fierce competition among political heavyweights seeking to inherit one of Nigeria’s most politically significant states.

Across Ibadan, Ogbomoso, Oke-Ogun, Oyo, Ibarapa and other parts of the state, consultations have intensified among former governors, former deputy governors, members of the National Assembly, party executives, traditional political blocs, grassroots mobilisers and business interests. Meetings in Ibadan, Abuja and other political centres have reportedly focused on candidate selection, zoning, reconciliation among aggrieved factions, possible defections and strategies for strengthening party structures ahead of the official campaign period.

Political conversations have increasingly revolved around Governor Seyi Makinde, Senator Sharafadeen Alli, HazeemGbolarumi, Bimbo Adekanmbi, Adebayo Adelabu, OriyomiHamzat, Bisi Ilaka, Gbemileke Alagbe, Adegboyega Adegoke, and several other influential political actors whose decisions could reshape the electoral map before the governorship election.

While some political developments have been officially confirmed, many reports concerning defections, mergers and strategic alliances remain subjects of political speculation and ongoing consultations. Nevertheless, one reality has become increasingly clear: Oyo State is entering one of the most fluid political transitions since Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999. The decisions political actors make before the party primaries—including candidate emergence, party unity, coalition-building and strategic defections—could ultimately determine who succeeds Governor Seyi Makinde at the AgodiGovernment House in 2027.

Oyo State has remained one of Nigeria’s most politically strategic states, with its voting pattern often reflecting broader developments in the South-West. Since 1999, power has changed hands among different political tendencies, making the state one of the country’s most competitive political battlegrounds. The 2019 governorship election marked a turning point when Seyi Makinde of the PDP defeated the APC administration despite the party’s federal dominance. His victory was largely attributed to a broad coalition of opposition forces, effective grassroots mobilisation and widespread dissatisfaction with the outgoing administration.

Consequently, in the 2023 governorship election, Makindesecured a convincing second-term victory, polling approximately 63 per cent of the votes cast to defeat the APC candidate, Teslim Folarin, while the Accord Party candidate, Adebayo Adelabu, finished third. The victory further strengthened the PDP’s dominance in Oyo State and reinforced Makinde’s position as one of the most influential political figures in the South-West. However, politics in Oyo has never remained static.

With Governor Makinde constitutionally barred from seeking another term in 2027, the state’s political landscape has once again become highly competitive. Virtually every major political party is grappling with internal succession battles, while influential politicians are reconsidering their political futures. Unlike previous election cycles, where incumbency significantly influenced political calculations, the forthcoming governorship election presents an open contest with no clear favourite. This has triggered intense negotiations, consultations and strategic manoeuvres across virtually all political parties.

The PDP is no longer the PDP that took control of the state government, it has experienced internal divisions arising from disagreements over succession, candidate selection and party leadership, and which has forced some into the APM has rapidly transformed into a significant political platform following the influx of high-profile politicians and supporters. The APC, on its part, has sought to rebuild after its 2023 defeat by reconciling aggrieved aspirants and consolidating support around its emerging leadership. Smaller political parties, including the Accord Party, the ADC and the Labour Party, have also experienced internal disagreements, parallel congresses and competing governorship aspirations, creating uncertainty regarding their eventual political direction.Taken together, these developments suggest that the political environment ahead of 2027 will be shaped not only by party manifestoes but also by negotiations, defections, mergers and coalition politics.

Very well, political defections have become one of the defining characteristics of Nigeria’s democratic experience, particularly in the Fourth Republic. Rather than being driven solely by ideology, party switching is often influenced by electoral calculations, leadership disputes, access to political structures, succession battles and the quest for stronger platforms ahead of elections. Oyo State has historically reflected this national trend, and the political developments leading to the 2027 governorship election appear no different.

Unlike previous election cycles, however, the current wave of defections has affected virtually every major political party in the state. The PDP has witnessed the departure of several influential figures, the APC has continued efforts to attract dissatisfied politicians from rival parties, while the APM has emerged as perhaps the biggest beneficiary of the ongoing political realignments. The Accord Party, ADC and Labour Party have also experienced internal divisions that could ultimately influence the outcome of the governorship election.

Perhaps the most consequential political development in OyoState has been the emergence of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) as a significant platform around Governor Seyi Makindeand many of his loyalists. Following months of political consultations, several politicians widely regarded as close associates of the governor moved or align from the PDP to the APM.

The emergence of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) as a major political force represents one of the most significant developments in Oyo politics. The party gained momentum after several party members from PDP aligned with Makinde—including several serving federal lawmakers—left the PDP to join the APM. The bloc has since positioned itself as a formidable platform by attracting defectors from the PDP, APC, Accord Party and ADC. With Hon. Abimbola (Bimbo) Adekanmbi as its governorship candidate and Makinde’sloyalists occupying key positions within the party, the APM has quickly transformed from a minor political platform into one of the leading contenders expected to influence the outcome of the 2027 Oyo governorship election. While its long-term electoral strength will ultimately depend on its ability to convert high-profile defections into votes across the state, its rapid rise has already reshaped the political permutations ahead of the election.

Taofeek Arapaja: The Biggest Opposition gain yet?

One of the most closely watched political developments has been the movement of former Deputy Governor Ambassador Taofeek Arapaja. Arapaja has remained one of the most influential politicians in Oyo State over the past two decades, serving as deputy governor, party leader and national officer of the PDP. His reported disagreements over the PDP governorship succession process generated intense political debate, particularly after parallel political interests emerged within the party.

His eventual association with the APC represents one of the most significant political developments ahead of the 2027 election. Unlike many other defectors, Arapaja brings not only personal political experience but also an extensive political network spanning several local government areas, especially within Ibadan. Should he successfully mobilise his supporters into the APC, the party could substantially improve its electoral prospects.

The ongoing political realignments have not been limited to the PDP, APC and APM. The Accord Party has continued to experience internal disagreements arising from competing leadership interests and with different governorship aspirants, as Olakunle Busari and Oriyomi Hamzat. Similarly, the ADC has struggled to present a united front following disputes over parallel primaries and rival governorship candidates.  Within the Labour Party, political uncertainty at the national level has also influenced developments in Oyo State, with some members reportedly exploring alternative political platforms. Although these parties may not individually possess the electoral strength of the PDP or APC, their eventual decisions regarding alliances or defections could influence voting patterns in closely contested local government areas.

Who Else Could Defect?

Despite the significant movements already witnessed, political analysts believe the realignment process is far from over. Several politicians across the major political parties are reportedly monitoring developments before making final decisions about their political future. Within the APC, observers have speculated that aggrieved aspirants dissatisfied with the outcome of party primaries could reconsider their positions if reconciliation efforts fail. Likewise, some members of the PDP who remain undecided may eventually align with whichever platform appears most capable of retaining Governor Makinde’spolitical structure. The Accord Party and ADC also remain vulnerable to further defections because of their internal leadership disputes. However, until official announcements are made, such possibilities remain speculative and should be viewed as part of the broader political calculations rather than confirmed developments.

Although formal merger discussions remain largely speculative, consultations among political actors suggest that several alliance permutations are being considered as parties seek to maximisetheir electoral prospects before the governorship election.

The most significant political development ahead of the 2027 governorship election in Oyo State has been the emergence of the PDP/APM political bloc, built around the political structure of Governor Seyi Makinde. Although the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) remains the ruling party in Oyo State, recent political developments have effectively created a working alliance between Makinde’s faction of the PDP and the Allied Peoples Movement (APM), making the two parties operate as a coordinated political force in preparation for the 2027 elections.  

The PDP has governed Oyo State since Makinde’s victory in 2019 and his re-election in 2023. During his administration, the government expanded infrastructure, education, healthcare, agribusiness and economic development programmes, achievements that strengthened the party’s popularity across many parts of the state. However, as Makinde approaches the end of his constitutionally permitted second term, succession politics has exposed deep divisions within the PDP.

Disagreements over leadership, succession planning and the governorship primary created competing factions within the party. While one faction remained within the traditional PDP structure, another aligned with Governor Makinde’s broader political movement, which eventually adopted the APM as its electoral platform. This realignment triggered the departure of several prominent PDP leaders and elected officials, significantly altering the state’s political landscape.  

The official PDP structure continues to recognise HazeemGbolarumi, a former Deputy Governor of Oyo State, as its governorship candidate. However, Makinde’s political camp threw its weight behind Hon. Abimbola (Bimbo) Adekanmbi, who emerged as the consensus governorship candidate of the APM. During the APM primary, the party leadership openly described the PDP-APM partnership as one expected to produce positive political outcomes for Oyo State, while Makindepersonally endorsed Adekanmbi as the candidate to continue his administration’s Omituntun agenda.  

The emergence of the APM transformed what was previously regarded as a relatively small political party into one of the most influential platforms in Oyo State. The party rapidly gained strength following the movement of many politicians loyal to Governor Makinde, including Shina Peller, Adedeji Olajide, Olufemi Ajadi, Onaolapo Adedoyin and several serving federal lawmakers. The bloc also attracted defectors from the APC, Accord Party and the ADC, giving the APM a broader political spread across the state.  

One of the greatest strengths of the PDP/APM bloc lies in its ability to combine the advantages of incumbency with a fresh political platform. While the PDP still controls the state government and possesses an extensive grassroots structure, the APM provides Makinde’s loyalists with an alternative platform largely free from the internal disputes affecting the PDP. This arrangement has enabled many political office holders and aspirants to remain within Makinde’s political family while contesting elections under the APM banner.  

Despite these advantages, the bloc faces notable challenges. The existence of rival PDP factions, unresolved legal and political disputes, and the need to maintain cohesion between two separate party structures could test its unity as the election draws nearer. Nevertheless, the PDP/APM alliance has emerged as one of the strongest political formations in Oyo State and is widely expected to remain a dominant force in determining the outcome of the 2027 governorship election. 

For APC, the APC remains the principal opposition party in OyoState. Although it lost the governorship election in both 2019 and 2023, the party continues to possess one of the strongest political structures in the state and enjoys the advantage of being the ruling party at the federal level.

Following its governorship primary, Senator SharafadeenAbiodun Alli emerged as the party’s candidate. Alli brings considerable political experience and enjoys substantial support within Ibadan and several other parts of the state.

Despite disagreements that followed the primary, the APC has focused on reconciliation, with party elders and national leaders encouraging aggrieved aspirants to work together in preparation for the general election.

The entry of Ambassador Taofeek Arapaja into the APC is widely viewed as a political boost. As a former deputy governor and influential political figure, Arapaja could strengthen the party’s grassroots network, particularly within Ibadan. Political analysts also believe the APC may continue to court dissatisfied politicians from other parties, especially if internal disputes elsewhere remain unresolved.

The party’s greatest advantage lies in its established nationwide structure, federal influence and relatively stable organisationalframework. However, its biggest challenge remains maintaining internal unity after the primary process and convincing voters that it offers a credible alternative to the outgoing administration.

For ADC, the ADC has experienced considerable internal turbulence in Oyo State. The emergence of rival governorship candidates and disagreements over parallel primaries have created uncertainty regarding the party’s direction. Among the names linked with the party are Gbemileke Alagbe, AdegboyegaAdegoke and Bisi Ilaka, reflecting the competing interests that have complicated its internal politics. Unless these differences are resolved, the ADC risks entering the governorship election with a divided structure. Nevertheless, the party could still play an important role. Rather than winning the governorship outright, the ADC may influence the election through strategic endorsements, alliances or defections involving key political actors.

The Accord Party has traditionally maintained a loyal following in parts of Oyo State and has, at different times, produced influential governorship candidates. Ahead of 2027, however, the party has also experienced internal disagreements arising from competing governorship ambitions.

Political discussions have linked Oriyomi Hamzat and OlakunleBusari with different tendencies within the party, although the eventual direction of the Accord Party remains uncertain. Some political observers believe Accord could eventually align with either the APC or the APM, depending on post-primary negotiations and broader political calculations. Others argue that the party may retain its independence until the election. At present, both possibilities remain speculative.

Although the Labour Party’s electoral structure in Oyo State remains relatively modest compared with the PDP and APC, its performance in the 2023 general election demonstrated that it cannot be completely ignored. The party reportedly produced Sola Kareem as its governorship candidate through its internal process. However, national developments affecting the Labour Party have inevitably influenced its state chapter. Some members have reportedly explored opportunities in other political parties, while others remain committed to rebuilding the party ahead of the election.

Now, several possible political alignments are currently being discussed within political circles. One possibility is continued cooperation between politicians associated with Governor Makinde and the APM, particularly if both sides conclude that maintaining a united political structure offers the best chance of retaining power after 2027.

Another scenario involves the APC attracting additional defectors from rival parties, particularly politicians dissatisfied with the outcome of party primaries. If reconciliation efforts succeed, the APC could emerge from the primary season stronger than anticipated. The ADC and Accord Party may also become important negotiating partners. Rather than mounting independent campaigns, sections of both parties could eventually support larger political platforms in exchange for strategic political concessions.

Similarly, the Labour Party may decide to coordinate with other opposition groups in constituencies where independent campaigns appear less competitive. At present, however, there is no officially announced merger involving the major political parties in Oyo State. Most discussions remain informal, and the final political alignments will likely become clearer after party primaries and the submission of candidates to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

Who holds the advantage? At this stage, no political party can be said to enjoy an overwhelming advantage. The PDP/APM still possesses the benefits of incumbency and an established political structure but faces the challenge of maintaining internal cohesion. The APC appears increasingly organised and continues to benefit from federal influence, yet its ultimate success will depend on sustaining unity after the primary process and attracting additional political support. Meanwhile, the ADC, Accord Party, and Labour Party may not individually possess the numerical strength to win the governorship, but their eventual political decisions could influence the outcome in a closely contested election.

Today, Nigeria’s Constitution recognises the right of every citizen to belong to a political party. However, elected public office holders who defect from one political party to another may face constitutional consequences under certain circumstances.

Section 68(1)(g) of the 1999 Constitution (as amended) provides that members of the National Assembly may lose their seats if they defect from the political party under which they were elected before the expiration of their tenure, except where there is a division within the political party or where a merger has occurred.

A similar provision exists for members of State Houses of Assembly under Section 109 of the Constitution.Governors and deputy governors occupy a different constitutional position. Although the Constitution does not automatically remove a governor for changing political parties, such decisions often carry significant political consequences, including possible legal disputes, public criticism and realignment of political structures. For Oyo State, where several serving lawmakers have already changed political parties, these constitutional provisions remain relevant, particularly if legal challenges arise regarding the validity of their defections.

Beyond constitutional provisions, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) remains one of the most influential institutions ahead of the 2027 election. INEC will supervise party primaries, monitor compliance with the Electoral Act, receive the names of nominated candidates and ensure that political parties comply with established guidelines. Any political party that fails to conduct valid primaries in accordance with its constitution and the Electoral Act risks losing its candidate through judicial intervention. This is particularly important considering that several political parties in Oyo State have experienced parallel congresses, multiple governorship aspirants and disputes over delegate lists.

Why Defections Have Become a Political Strategy? Political defections have become one of the defining characteristics of Nigeria’s Fourth Republic.

Unlike mature democracies where ideology largely determines party membership, Nigerian politicians frequently change political parties in response to changing political realities. Several factors explain this trend.

The first is electoral survival. Politicians naturally seek platforms where they believe they have the greatest chance of securing nomination and winning elections. Secondly, internal democracy remains a major challenge in many political parties. Allegations of imposition, manipulation of delegates and disagreements over primary elections often encourage dissatisfied aspirants to seek opportunities elsewhere.

Another important factor is political influence. Politicians frequently align themselves with individuals considered capable of influencing electoral outcomes, whether at the state or national level. The current political developments in Oyo State reflect many of these realities.

Now, based on current developments, three broad political scenarios appear most plausible. The first possibility is that politicians loyal to Governor Seyi Makinde eventually consolidate behind a common political platform before the election. Should this happen, the governor’s political machinery could remain largely intact despite the recent defections from the PDP.

Such unity would likely strengthen whichever governorship candidate ultimately enjoys Makinde’s endorsement.

Under this arrangement, multiple political parties would field strong governorship candidates without any significant merger taking place. The APC, PDP, APM, ADC, Accord Party and Labour Party could all participate actively, resulting in a highly competitive multi-cornered contest.Such fragmentation could significantly reduce the winning margin and make local government-level mobilisation more important than statewide popularity alone.

In this scenario, voter turnout, grassroots organisation and effective election-day logistics could become more decisive than campaign rhetoric.

A third possibility is that the APC successfully consolidates opposition forces.

If additional influential politicians continue joining the party while reconciliation efforts succeed, the APC could significantly strengthen its electoral prospects. The party would also benefit from its connection to the Federal Government, particularly if national political developments favour the ruling party before the election. However, this scenario depends heavily on maintaining unity among former governorship aspirants and accommodating new entrants without creating additional internal conflicts.

Several issues are expected to determine the eventual outcome of the governorship election. The first is party unity. Political parties capable of resolving internal disputes before the election will likely enjoy a significant advantage. Secondly, candidate popularity will remain critical. Personal acceptance, political experience and grassroots appeal often influence voting behaviour in Oyo State. Another important factor is zoning and regional balancing. Although Oyo State has no legally recognised zoning arrangement, geographical considerations frequently influence political discussions. Campaign financing, youth participation, security, voter turnout, economic conditions and public perception of the outgoing administration will also shape the electoral environment. Ultimately, the ability of political parties to translate endorsements into actual votes on election day will determine success.

Despite growing political activities, every major political party faces identifiable risks.

For the PDP/APM, the greatest challenge remains rebuilding internal unity after months of disagreements and high-profile defections. The APC’s principal task is maintaining internal cohesion following its primary election while successfully integrating new members. The ADC, Labour Party and Accord Party must resolve internal leadership questions if they hope to remain electorally relevant. Failure to address these challenges could significantly weaken their respective campaigns.

Finally, the political journey towards the 2027 governorship election in Oyo State has already begun in earnest. Although several months remain before voters cast their ballots, the political decisions currently being taken may ultimately prove more significant than the campaigns themselves.

The emergence of new political alignments, the movement of influential politicians across party lines, ongoing reconciliation efforts and speculation about possible alliances have transformed the state’s political environment into one of the most dynamic in Nigeria. At present, no political party can confidently claim victory.

The PDP/APM continues to rely on the advantages of incumbency but faces internal divisions. The APC appears determined to capitalise on the changing political landscape by presenting itself as a united alternative, while smaller parties such as the ADC, Accord Party, Labour Party may ultimately influence the election through strategic partnerships rather than outright victory. Nevertheless, many of the reported alliances and possible defections remain matters of political speculation until officially confirmed by the individuals or parties involved. As such, the political landscape remains fluid and subject to rapid change.

If history is any guide, Oyo State’s politics will continue to evolve before the commencement of official campaigns. More negotiations, reconciliations, defections and strategic alliances are likely in the coming months as political actors seek to strengthen their positions. One thing, however, is certain: the contest to succeed Governor Seyi Makinde promises to be one of the most competitive, unpredictable and politically significant governorship elections in the history of Oyo State. The outcome will not only determine who occupies the Agodi Government House after 2027 but may also reshape the balance of political power in the South-West and influence Nigeria’s broader political landscape in the years ahead.