Adelabu, Oyo APC and 2027: Who’s Afraid of His Comeback?

Even with 2027 still two years away, the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Oyo State is already neck-deep in uncertainty and obvious turmoil, not because of the ruling party, but over the unsettled question of who should fly the party’s flag for governor. Far from preparing as a united front, the APC appears trapped in familiar patterns of infighting, mistrust, and cold calculations. The battle lines are being drawn very early, and at the nucleus of the storm is Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Minister of Power whose revived ambition to govern Oyo State has recharged old rivalries and reopened wounds many assumed had healed.

A Party Divided Ahead of 2027

Obviously, the party’s internal structure, still recovering from the implosions of 2019 and 2023, is once again showing signs of painful strain, with zoning advocates, legacy loyalists, loyal party men, and defection-returnees jostling for regular relevance. As Adelabu leads off his consultations across the state, those who oppose him are just as busy consolidating their resistance. The road to 2027, for the Oyo APC, is already looking like a battlefield, long before the whistle has even been blown.

Adelabu’s Consultations and Symbolic Moves

It’s no longer news that in recent weeks, Adelabu has magnified consultations with party stakeholders across all six geopolitical zones. His visits to Ogbomoso and Oyo towns were not only seminal but quite symbolic.

In Ogbomoso, he met with APC leaders at the residence of Senator Ayoade Adeseun, sought forgiveness from aggrieved members, and even paid respect at the tomb of the late Governor Alao-Akala. In Oyo town, he promised inclusive governance and promised that “no one will be left behind” if he becomes governor. Everywhere he went, his message was consistent: “I am not here for imposition. I am here to work, to compete, and to earn it.” Yet, behind the applause and photo-ops, a storm brews within the Oyo APC.

Adelabu’s ambition is not new, and neither is the resistance. In 2019, his emergence as APC’s candidate, perceived by many as an imposition by the late Governor Abiola Ajimobi, touched off a mass exodus of aggrieved stakeholders, fracturing the party and handing victory to PDP’s Seyi Makinde. That history still casts a long shadow. Many who opposed him then haven’t forgotten or perhaps forgiven.

A Fractured Coalition and Competing Blocs

Today, the party remains haunted by its unsettled past. The coalition that once sustained Ajimobi’s eight-year rule has splintered into brawling camps. The progressive SENACO bloc, conservative PDP Reform Group, the LAMISTS, and disgruntled former Accord and Unity Forum members are again fighting for dominance. Adelabu’s return to APC after defecting to Accord in 2023 and his appointment as Minister of Power, has even further complicated the equation.  To some, he’s the prodigal son returning home. To others, he’s a threat being handed federal advantage.

While the “federal” son, Adelabu pleads for forgiveness and preaches unity, not everyone is buying it. Former Communications Minister Adebayo Shittu has warned pointedly against allowing another Ibadan man to rule the state after Ajimobi and Makinde’s combined 16-year grip. “It would be a calculated injustice,” he opines, pointing to the need for zoning and wider representation.

Akeem Agbaje, a two-time governorship hopeful, is also equally clear: “We will resist any attempt to impose a candidate.” His statement was less about Adelabu and more about what he represents, a return to old politics, backroom endorsements, and Ibadan-centric dominance. Even more calculative, powerful Teslim Folarin, 2023 APC candidate, may be silent for now, but sources close to his camp say he’s watching, waiting, and also unwilling to play second fiddle.

Loyalists Feel Betrayed

Better still, even loyal APC members who stayed through the party’s blood-and-guts seasons feel short-changed. The fact that Adelabu and Joseph Tegbe, both of whom contested under other parties in 2023, were the ones rewarded with federal appointments, while loyalists were disused has left a bitter aftertaste. Now, at the core of the debate lies another elephant in the room, President Tinubu. While Adelabu insists that the president will never impose a candidate and believes in meritocracy, many believe his federal appointment is already a nod. Critics fear that Abuja may again be quietly lining him up for 2027, creating that uneven playing field in the party.

However, Adelabu is having none of it. “President Tinubu will advise me to return home, work, and earn the people’s support,” he said in Ibadan, emphasizing his readiness to face a primary election like he did in 2019. He’s also not missing an opportunity to tie his fate to the president’s political future, asking Oyo and Ogbomosho APC members to rally behind Tinubu’s second term for more dividends, citing the appointments of Ogbomoso’s Zacheus Adedeji (FIRS Chairman) and Sunday Dare as presidential aides.

However, while the federal connection gives Adelabu recognition, it also fuels resentment. The perception that Abuja may skew the process in his favour is becoming one of the biggest problem to his credibility in the eyes of party stakeholders.

The Ajimobi Factor and Loyalty Questions

Many don’t know that another silent layer of opposition lies in the unresolved legacy of the late Governor Ajimobi. Until his death in 2020, he was the rallying point of the Oyo APC, a father figure who, despite his flaws, kept the house from collapsing. Since then, his widow, Florence Ajimobi, has tried to retain moral leadership and an “influencer” in the party, but unity has remained elusive. Adelabu’s conspicuous absence at Ajimobi’s five-year remembrance was widely noted and interpreted by some as disrespectful, a sign that he has drifted too far from the identity he once claimed. 

To many within the Ajimobi camp, it was not just a scheduling issue, it was interpreted as a symbolic snub, a subtle distancing from the political identity that once helped birth his 2019 candidacy. The optics did not go unnoticed, especially among those who still view loyalty to the Ajimobi family as a litmus test for trust within the party. Insiders suggest that Madam Ajimobi herself may not be in support of Adelabu’s emergence as the APC’s anointed candidate for 2027, a whisper that has grown louder in recent months. But why would the widow of his former political benefactor withhold support?

Some speculate that she still holds reservations from the 2019 fallout, when Adelabu’s candidacy, perceived to be Ajimobi’s personal project  ended in a bitter defeat that fractured the party. Others believe it may be more personal: perhaps a feeling that Adelabu has failed to keep faith with the legacy, the family, or the inner circle that once backed him. Whatever the reason, her silent but tactical influence could prove important, especially in a party where “loyalty”, and perception matter just as much as ground support.

The Many Faces of Internal Opposition

Again, the absence of consensus among old Ajimobi loyalists, the expected resurgence of internal blocs, and the unhealed scars of the 2019 fallout have turned the Oyo APC into a political minefield. So, who exactly are the enemies of Adelabu’s ambition? They are not just single group, and they do not wear one face, but together, they form a formidable web of resistance. There are the zoning advocates, who argue that after 16 unbroken years of Ibadan governorship under Ajimobi and Makinde, it is time for power to shift to Oke-Ogun or Ogbomoso. Then there are the loyal party men and women, who stayed with the APC through the storms of 2019 and 2023, only to watch defectors like Adelabu and Joseph Tegbe return and get federal appointments. They feel overlooked, bitter, and used.

The Folarin camp is also watching closely, concerned about losing grip on the party’s internal structure, and the spoils that come with it. Alongside them are the legacy defenders, loyalists of the late Ajimobi who are increasingly unimpressed with Adelabu’s status, scores and CV.. Then there are other ambitious aspirants those who believe they have paid their dues, invested time, and built structures over the years. To them, Adelabu’s re-entry and fast-paced consultations feel like an attempted leapfrogging over the queue, and they’re more annoyed than the usual “annoyed”. And finally, there are internal rivals who, regardless of ideology, see Adelabu as a formidable contender, perhaps too well-connected, too resourced, and too determined to beat in a primary. But even more dangerous, they fear he may be too divisive to unify the party after the primaries.

 

Now, despite all these tensions, Adelabu remains one of the most visible and structured aspirants in the APC. His consultations are gaining traction directly and indirectly, his public image is being polished again, and his efforts at reconciliation, while imperfect and are not yet are real. Yet, the risk is clear: if the APC in Oyo State repeats the mistakes of 2019 and 2023 fighting within, splitting camps, and pushing resentment, then Seyi Makinde’s PDP will again stroll to victory in 2027. Already, there are signs that Makinde is building quietly, and if APC fails to field a united front, the next governor may not come from their ranks at all. Adelabu may be fighting for more than a ticket, he’s battling for political redemption. However, the question remains: will the enemies against ambition crush his dream, or will APC overcome itself in time to stand a chance?

Conclusion: A Race Against Time

Time will tell, but Oyo State cannot afford another opposition self-sabotage. The stakes are quite high. The window is closing. And ambition, no matter how bright, must be matched with unity, humility, and tactics. Until then, the biggest enemy of Adelabu’s ambition may not be outside, but within the party he hopes to lead to victory.

 Ogungbile Emmanuel Oludotun writes for Oyo Affairs